Tuesday, March 28, 2017

What We've Learned From March Madness

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Now that the Final Four is set, and many people are calling it a "bad" Final Four, it's time to look back on the assumptions that we had entering the tournament.

Gonzaga is a pretender

This has become an annual presumption when it comes to filling out brackets, Gonzaga enters the tournament with somewhere between three and six to seven losses, often as a top-5 seed. Then, the Bulldogs are "upset" earlier than a team with their record "should", having reached the Elite Eight only once since 2000, despite making the tournament in every season.

This year though, the Zags entered March with only one loss, and with wins over tournament teams including Arizona, Iowa State, Florida, and St. Mary's. Even with the better than usual resume, much of the basketball community still did not believe in Mark Few and Gonzaga. Now, the Zags are in the Final Four, and have proved that this team is more than just the best team in a sub-par conference.

The SEC is just a football conference

The SEC only got five teams into the tournament, two of which were 8 and 9 seeds, including Vanderbilt, the only 15 loss team to ever make it into the field of 64. Fast forward two weekends, and three of the SEC's teams are in the Elite Eight. The other two didn't just roll over either, Vanderbilt was a last minute brain fart away from a second round matchup with Gonzaga, and Arkansas took North Carolina down to the wire.

As for Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida, all three showed that they were legitimate contenders, combining to knock off Duke, Baylor, Virginia, and UCLA. Only South Carolina made it to the final weekend, defeating Florida, while Kentucky fell in the final seconds to North Carolina. However, the SEC was the only conference with more than one team in the Elite Eight.

The more important thing here is that Florida is back, and South Carolina could be a force to be reckoned with under Frank Martin in years to come. While this is great for college basketball as a whole, it could be quite annoying in years to come if the rest of the country has to hear it from SEC fans about football AND basketball.

The ACC is the best conference in basketball

This one is tough, because while most of the ACC teams bowed out early, North Carolina is still standing as we near the final weekend, and the favorite to avenge their last second loss in the National Championship a year ago.

It's hard to justify the ACC being the premier college basketball conference after only one of their nine teams made it past the first weekend, but with only the SEC having multiple representatives in the Elite Eight, it might not quite be time to dethrone the ACC just yet.

Two of the ACC's losses (Duke and Virginia) came to Elite Eight teams in Florida and South Carolina, while Louisville fell to a Michigan team that came within seconds of beating Final Four bound Oregon. So, the ACC may not have the most elite teams in the country, but top to bottom it's hard to argue that the ACC remains the toughest and strongest conference.

The B1G had a down year

Entering the second weekend, it seemed like this one was wrong, with five of the seven B1G teams winning their first round matchups (Maryland fell to Elite Eight finalist Xavier), and three advancing to the sweet sixteen. Then, the B1G ended up with no teams in the Elite Eight, with Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan all falling in the Sweet Sixteen.

This doesn't mean that the B1G has fallen from the elite conferences in college basketball, but that this year the conference just didn't have the elite caliber teams that they have in past years, with Michigan State struggling through injuries, and Wisconsin struggling late in the season.

That being said, the B1G is primed for a rebound year next season, with very few guaranteed departures, and a plethora of returning talent. Miles Bridges, Melo Trimble, and Caleb Swanigan are all likely to declare early for the NBA, and Derrick Walton Jr., Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig are all graduating. 

However, the B1G will be loaded in the front court next season with Nick Ward, Ethan Happ, Moritz Wagner, D.J. Wilson, Nicholas Baer, and Jordan Murphy returning. Those returners will lead five of the conferences top teams (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Minnesota), while the other two (Maryland and Purdue) will hope for their stars to return to school to lead their returning supporting cast.



As we come to the conclusion of the tournament, it seems like most of the assumptions going into the tournament remain intact (assuming UNC can at least make the title game to save the ACC).

More importantly, the basketball world needs to realize that this Final Four isn't bad, it just doesn't have the full slate of big name programs that we're used to. Oregon, and Gonzaga are better than people think or want to believe, South Carolina may have the best defense in the country, and North Carolina was a lot of peoples' favorites going into the season and are looking to avenge last season's heartbreaking loss.

Finally, enjoy the last weekend of college basketball until November.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

The Mystery of the 2013 NBA Draft

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The 2013 draft is now well known as one of the worst drafts in recent history, but what was really so bad about it? Nearing four years removed the 2013 draft, it's starting to seem like the problem was the teams drafting, not the players available.

For starters, Giannis Antetokounmpo has turned into the type of player any team in the league would love to have drafted. In a five year span of drafts that included #1 draft picks Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns, it's certainly debatable that the Greek Freak has developed into arguably an equal to even the best of those former #1 picks. Obviously, it's crazy to say that a team could have known that Giannis would develop into the All-Star caliber player that he is now, but given the other players in the draft, his potential alone certainly could have put him much higher that the 15th pick where he landed.

Following the Greek Freak is the Robin to Damian Lillard's Batman, the pride of Lehigh, C.J. McCollum. Like Giannis, it took a couple of years for McCollum to really get going (in his case due to injury), but McCollum is now the third highest scoring shooting guard in the league. Not only has McCollum's scoring increased every year (now up to 23.3 points per game), but so has his efficiency (48% FG, and 55% effective FG). It's understandable that injury worries could cause teams to be hesitant on draft night, but given McCollum's ability to shoot and create, putting him on par with the four guards taken ahead of him would not have been unheard of.

Think Giannis is long and athletic? What if there was a player in the same draft class who was just five inches from the rim, without jumping? Enter Rudy Gobert, or, the Stifle Tower. At the combine, Gobert's standing reach was measured at 9 feet 7 inches, and a wingspan of 7 feet 8 inches. Granted, it's impossible to assume a prospect will become the best defensive center in the league based on physical attributes only, but Gobert's height (7'2") and reach combined with his 29 inch max vertical jump should've been enough for teams to take a flyer on him higher than the 27th pick. Gobert currently ranks 1st in the NBA in blocks (2.5 bpg) and defensive rating (97.8), and is 3rd in FG% (64%) and offensive rating (126.8).

The foreign theme continued in this draft with Dennis Schroder. The German was taken 17th by the Atlanta Hawks, as a backup to Jeff Teague. Now with Teague's departure, Schroder is averaging 17.4 ppg to go along with 6.3 apg, ranking 14th and 8th among point guards. Simply put, this means that at least 16 NBA teams are kicking themselves (in draft order and his current production).

This draft also brought the NBA's leader in 3-point percentage this year, with the #3 pick, Otto Porter Jr.. Like the other players listed here, it took Porter Jr. a couple of years to find his footing, but he is now averaging just over 14 ppg, on 46% from beyond the arc, fitting in perfectly with fellow top-3 picks John Wall and Bradley Beal in the nation's capital.

So given these five players, who would actually make a pretty solid starting five, and a unique one at that, it's time to reconsider bashing the 2013 draft class. In fact, it was one of the best drafts for international players, with Giannis and Schroder ranking 2nd and 7th in scoring, and 6th and 2nd in assists respectively, while Gobert, Giannis, Steven Adams, and Gorgui Dieng all rank in the top-10 in international rebounders.

If anything, the 2013 draft should serve as a warning for NBA teams in the draft process, where seven of the top-10 picks came from high-profile programs that receive lots of media attention over the course of the year. Whereas the only major college program player on this list of what might be the redrafted top-5 was Porter Jr.. Or, if you're one for conspiracies, maybe Cleveland was a step ahead of everybody in the "Riggin' for Wiggins" (as Bill Simmons called it) tanking campaign, and that's why they inexplicably took Anthony Bennett #1 overall.