Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Why Not To Count Out The ACC

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The "best conference in the country", might not have a 1-seed come selection Sunday, but here are all the reasons why the ACC will still have success in March.

Every year, the B1G-ACC Challenge gives college basketball fans a three day slate of matchups of the two premier conferences in college basketball, often resulting in the winner being crowned the best conference in the country. The ACC won the first 10 challenges, but had not won since 2008, and since then the B1G had been considered at the very least on par with the ACC as the best conference in the country. Then the ACC dropped the hammer on the B1G this year, winning the challenge nine games to five, for their first win in eight years.

The ACC's victory this year could easily be understood as the B1G having a down year (they are), but in matchups of likely tournament teams, the ACC went 4-1 (4-2 if you count Indiana's win before they turned into a pretender).

So this begs the questions: Is the ACC just the best conference top to bottom? Or will they dominate the tournament too?

The way the season has played out, it's tough to pick out a favorite, or even a likely Final Four, and because of the parity in the ACC, the conference is unlikely to receive a 1-seed come selection Sunday after Virginia's upset of #5 North Carolina Monday night. But the parity also suggests that the ACC is loaded with good teams. According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the ACC would have five teams as 5-seeds or better, with Virginia and Notre Dame (currently both 5-seeds) both on the rise.

Despite UNC's loss Monday night, the Tar Heels along with Louisville will both likely be 1 or 2-seeds, but they aren't the only teams from the ACC poised to make a run in March. Florida State, Duke, Notre Dame, and maybe even Virginia after Monday night's performance are all teams that other top seeds will not look forward to facing once the Madness begins.

While the Pac12 has three top-10 teams (arguably top-5), no conference has the depth that the ACC has, and we haven't even mentioned Miami, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse who all have a shot at making the dance. ESPN's BPI (basketball power index) rankings show four ACC teams in the top-10, double the amount of any other conference.

Another thing the ACC has is balanced scoring from all of their contending teams, even likely ACC Player of the Year Luke Kennard of Duke has back court mates Grayson Allen and Jayson Tatum each averaging at least 15 points per game. If we've learned anything from the past five years or so, it's not about having one elite player in March, even the Kentucky and Duke teams that have won titles did so with balanced scoring from a handful of contributors.

The two top teams (Louisville and UNC), fit that mold. Louisville as usual relies on their defense and quick back court duo of Donovan Mitchell (16.1 ppg) and Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg), along with a revolving door of big men (four bigs averaging at least 6 ppg and 4 rpg). Carolina relies a bit more heavily on their starters, primarily Justin Jackson (18.4 ppg, 39% 3pt), Joel Berry (14.7 ppg, 40% 3pt), and the two-headed post monster of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks (combined 24 ppg, 57% FG).

So what does this all mean for the ACC as we enter March? It means that while the conference may not have a 1-seed come selection Sunday, it would be foolish not to pick at least a couple ACC teams to make the Elite Eight in your brackets.

After all, the ACC had four teams make the Elite Eight last year, two of which made the Final Four, with Carolina ultimately making it within seconds of a National Title.

Thursday, February 23, 2017

The Best and Worst of NBA Trade Deadline Day 2017

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Despite the likes of Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Andre Drummond staying put this trade deadline, a handful of contenders made good moves, and some non-contenders made some not so good moves.

Best

Nets and Wizards swap Bogdanovic for First Round Pick:
The Wizards have been one of the best teams in the new calendar year, going 18-5 since January 1st (three of the losses to the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Rockets). Washington has developed a very talented starting five lead by the dynamic duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal (22 points per game each), along with NBA leader in 3-point percentage Otto Porter Jr. (14.6 ppg), but have lacked bench production this year. That's where Bogdanovic fits in, the third year Bosnian is averaging 14.2 ppg this year for the abysmal Brooklyn Nets, but is a career 37% from beyond the arc, and has the ability to play both the 3 and 4 positions, to give rest to Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris. The pick brings the Nets a little bit closer to being able to rebuild, with two first round picks likely in the 20s this year (Boston and Washington).

Lakers and Rockets swap Lou Williams, Corey Brewer, plus First Round Pick:
Mike D'Antoni has turned the Rockets into an analytical-three-point-shooting-machine this year, led by MVP candidate James Harden and the re-emergence of Eric Gordon (second and fourth in the NBA in made three pointers respectively). Williams gives D'Antoni's squad another perimeter threat, and much needed back court depth to help Harden and Gordon. This deal also came at little cost to the Rockets, with Corey Brewer having a near career worst year in just about every statistic, and giving up what would be the 28th pick in the draft.

Raptors get PJ Tucker and Serge Ibaka:
Toronto has been the opposite of the Wizards since the turn of the year, posting a measly 12-14 record since Jan. 1, including just a 3-5 record in February. Their front office certainly noticed the recent struggles, turning sixth-man Terrance Ross and Jared Sullinger into Serge Ibaka (Magic) and P.J. Tucker (Suns). Ibaka gives the Raptors some depth in the front court and the option to play big, while Tucker provides veteran wing depth to replace Ross. Canada's team will need all the help they can get after dropping to the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference, which could lead to a second round match-up with the Cavs, but this was a good mid-season pair of moves that should lead them in the right direction. While the Raptors improved, the Suns and Magic both continue to make questionable moves.

Thunder get McDermott, Gibson from Bulls:
Cameron Payne was great for entertainment purposes with his elaborate handshake routines with Russell Westbrook, but his performance has taken a step back from what was a relatively promising rookie campaign. That makes this trade even better for the Thunder, who add a versitile shooter in Doug McDermott, and even more front court depth in veteran Taj Gibson. Westbrook's numbers are gaudy as it stands, and that is without much (if any) shooting ability around him, adding McDermott (40% career 3pt) well give the MVP candidate even more room to operate. Gibson gives the Thunder the option to decrease rookie Domantis Sabonis' minutes (just 6 ppg, 3 rpg, on 40% in 21 mpg), and makes for a stout defensive front court when paired with Steven Adams. This trade may even be more one sided than the Boogie deal, but it was extremely important for the Thunder to get Westbrook help as soon as possible. Despite the Thunder's gain, the Bulls' mystery of a season will continue with this move just the most recent in a flurry of newsworthy chapters.

Worst

Kings ship Boogie with little hope of rebuild:
This trade was great for the Pelicans, and if the chemistry works, it'll earn them a playoff spot and the chance to compete next season with a unique front court pairing the likes of which have not been seen since Tim Duncan and David Robinson. However, on the flip side, the Kings received what seems to be much less than full value for Demarcus Cousins. Sacramento received 6th overall pick Buddy Hield, former Kings draft choice Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, and the Pelicans first and second round picks this season. In theory, this would give the Kings two lottery picks along with Buddy Hield, effectively three lottery picks in two years. However, if the Kings fall outside the top-10 in this year's draft, they owe their pick to the Bulls, and if they fall inside the top-10, the Sixers have the option to swap picks with them. This makes it unlikely the Kings will have a chance to get one of the elite players in this year's draft, which begs the question, who are the Kings building around now?


Sixers give up Noel for...?
Leading up to the deadline, everyone thought that the Sixers would be dealing a big man, but everyone assumed it would be Jahlil Okafor. Instead, Philly traded Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks for, well, not much. Officially, the Sixers received Andrew Bogut, Justin Anderson, and a protected (1-18) first round pick from Dallas, but sources say they plan to buy out Bogut to make him a free agent, and with Dallas unlikely to make the playoffs (especially after waiving Deron Williams), the pick will become two second round selections next year. The Sixers do need some wing help, and Anderson can defend, but his inability to shoot efficiently at the NBA level (40%, 29% 3pt) makes this move quite confusing.  

Thursday, February 16, 2017

The Best College Basketball Alumni Teams

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Earlier this week, University of Kentucky coach John Calipari said in a Bleacher Report interview that if an NBA team could afford an all-ex-Kentucky roster, they could win an NBA title (he's probably right). So which other college programs have produced at least a starting five that could compete at the NBA level?

Link to Bleacher Report's Calipari article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2691798-john-calipari-on-coaching-extreme-talent-one-and-dones-and-his-all-nba-team

In no particular order, the top five starting fives:

Kentucky

Mostly one-and-dones, Calipari has brought in and produced a plethora of NBA stars since taking over as Kentucky's head coach. So many that Calipari himself said that an all-Kentucky alumni team in the NBA would be impossible due to the salaries. However, he did say that hypothetically, his starting five would be John Wall, Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Demarcus Cousins. Not to mention the talent and depth they would have off the bench.

Even a more "budget-friendly" team could trot out a lineup of Wall, Brandon Knight, Kidd-Gilchrist, Davis, and Enes Kanter. A lineup that is both affordable, and would easily hold its own against the rest of the NBA.

The Wildcats alums would be so loaded that guys like Eric Bledsoe, Rajon Rondo, Julius Randle, and Terrence Jones wouldn't even crack the starting lineup, or see much time at all.

Heck, just the guys from Wall and Cousins' one year could beat most NBA teams, with Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and Deandre Liggins joining the two All-Stars.


UCLA

The Bruins have been a bit underwhelming in terms of success at the college level in recent history, but their alums have had no shortage of success in their professional careers.

The UCLA alumni starting five would likely consist of Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine, Aaron Afflalo, Trevor Ariza, and Kevin Love. A lineup that would fit right in with the modern NBA's pace a space concept.

The bench would not have the depth of Kentucky, but a backup backcourt of Darren Collison and Jrue Holliday is pretty darn good.


Texas

Possibly even more underwhelming than UCLA given the NBA talent they have produced, the Longhorns are probably the "darkhorse" of this list due to their much lower profile in the college basketball scene.

Cory Joseph, Avery Bradley, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Myles Turner make up a very formidable starting five, and probably the best defensive unit on this list.

The Kentucky team might be deeper and have more offensive firepower, but the Longhorn alumni starting five could give the Wildcat five a run for their money, and would definitely be worth the price of entry.


Marquette

The Golden Eagles only have five players total in the NBA, but if you're a fan of yet-to-make-his-debut-rookie Henry Ellenson, this is the team for you.

Joining Ellenson are Dwyane Wade, Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler, and Jae Crowder, one helluva small-ball lineup. Or, if you really want to space the floor, Steve Novak is really the only other big guy at your disposal. Or you could go REALLY small, play Crowder at center, and pick up the top D-League prospect, Vander Blue (also part of the all-name team).


Connecticut

Unfortunately, the man formerly known as Jesus Shuttlesworth (Ray Allen), finally announced his retirement earlier this year, making his alma mater's squad searching for a wing player to fill out their starting five.

Even without Ray-Ray, the Huskies could trot out NCAA-Championship duo Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier in what might be the smallest backcourt ever. Along with Jeremy Lamb, Rudy Gay, and Andre Drummond. If you really hate the small guards, A. You aren't a true UConn fan, and B. Hasheem Thabeet is NOT in the league anymore.


Honorable Mention

Duke: The Blue Devils have no shortage of NBA players (second only to Kentucky), but their theoretical starting five has some "big" holes, literally speaking. Kyrie Irving, JJ Reddick, and Jabari Parker are a really solid 1-3, but then you're left deciding between Jahlil Okafor and the three Plumlee brothers to fill out your lineup.

Georgia Tech: Iman Shumpert, Anthony Morrow, Thadeus Young, Derrick Favors, Chris Bosh (another darkhorse?).

Kansas: If Embiid had played more than 31 games in his career, the Jayhawks would make the list no doubt, or, if they had ANY point guards in the NBA (really too bad the Mario Chalmers Lebron James reunion didn't happen). Joining the Process would be the Morris twins, Andrew Wiggins, and...Paul Pierce at point guard?

North Carolina: Much like their in-state rival, the Tar Heels have a vast number of NBA players, but despite having the best player of all time as an alum, Carolina lacks the elite level players needed to make this list. Raymond Felton, Danny Green, Vince Carter, Harrison Barnes, and John Henson would be the likely starting five.

Ohio State: Mike Conley, D'Angelo Russell, Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger, Kosta Koufos. Despite having the NBA's highest paid player, you can't help but say "eh" when you see this lineup.

Syracuse: This team would have possibly the worst ball movement of all time. Michael Carter-Williams, Dion Waiters, Wesley Johnson, Jerami Grant, and Carmelo Anthony (yes, Melo at center).

Monday, February 13, 2017

Trusting the Process

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In large part thanks to social media sensation and likely rookie of the year Joel Embiid, "Trust the Process" has become a well known phrase in the basketball universe. Because of Embiid's goofy personality, many fans see the phrase as a joke stemming from ex-GM Sam Hinkie, who started the extreme rebuilding process in Philadelphia with strong criticism from much of the fan-base.

Hinkie stepped down during last season do to the building pressure to "win now", and to abandon "the Process", but it's starting to look like he was on to something.

Just a month after Hinkie's resignation the 76ers landed the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, which they turned into Ben Simmons. The beginning of the 2016-17 also brought the beginning of former #3 overall pick Joel Embiid, whose Twitter bio reads "PROCESSING.......................". Due to injury (much like Embiid), Simmons is yet to make his NBA debut, but the Sixers have made some impressive strides without their #1 pick.

With 28 games remaining, the Sixers have doubled their win total from a season ago, and are only five games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. Their success is in large part thanks to Embiid's play, at 20-34 overall, the Sixers are 13-18 when Embiid plays. Despite a minutes restriction (playing only 25.4 minutes per game), Embiid is averaging 20.2 points per game, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks, on 47% shooting, and most surprisingly 37% from three point range.

Now with Top-3 picks from each of the past three drafts, it would be easy to think "the Process" should be complete, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. The Sixers would currently have the 4th pick, with the option to swap spots with the Sacramento Kings if they are in the Top-10. 

More importantly, the Sixers also have a pick from a move that Hinkie got a huge deal of grief for, when he traded reigning Rookie-of-the-Year Michael Carter-Williams in a three team trade that landed the Sixers a Top-5 protected pick originally part of the Steve Nash to the Lakers trade. After the Lakers getting the #2 pick each of the last two years, the pick is now only Top-3 protected, meaning the Sixers could conceivably have two picks in the Top 5.

With Simmons and Embiid holding down the front court, this year's draft is perfect for the Sixers needs, loaded with guard talent at the top. If the Lakers pick does fall into the hands of the Sixers this June, Philly will have the luxury of choosing two of the likes of Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith, Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Jonathan Isaac to round out their young core.

The draft potential this year for the Sixers gives them the possibility of a starting lineup with at least four players 23 years old or younger (if not all five), with Embiid and Simmons already being tagged as future NBA All-Stars. 

When Embiid has been healthy, this year's Sixers team has already shown glimpses of what the future holds, and with the return of Simmons and another incoming lottery pick, Hinkie's process looks likely to bring a playoff team to Philadelphia as early as next year.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Could This Be The Year for Gonzaga?

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This season of college hoops has been as wild as any in recent history, but one constant remains, it's mid-February and no one knows whether or not to take Gonzaga seriously. 

Gonzaga currently sits at #1 in the AP and USA Today Top-25 polls at 25-0, which for any other school would be a resume that would surely bring the title of "the best team in college basketball". But that's not the case for the Bulldogs, likely due to the fact that they are not a member of a major conference, playing in the West Coast Conference.

The doubt is reasonable, despite making the NCAA tournament in each of the past 17 seasons (all 16 under Mark Few), reached the second weekend of the tournament in less than half of those appearances (five Sweet Sixteens, two Elite Eights). For most "mid-major" schools that would be quite the accomplishment, but the Bulldogs have been a 4-seed or higher six times under Few, reaching the second weekend in only three of those seasons. This has created somewhat of an underachieving or overrated view of Gonzaga despite their annual appearance in the March Madness.

So what could make this year different? Three major things: Depth, defense, and dominance.

The Bulldogs have seven players averaging 8 points per game or more, led by Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss (15.6 ppg, 4.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 50% FG). Joining Williams-Goss in the back court is sharpshooting sophomore Josh Perkins (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 44% 3pt). Gonzaga also has a seemingly perfect combination of experience and youth in the post, in senior and Polish Giant Przemek Karnowski (12.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 61% FG in only 22 minutes), and freshman NBA prospect Zach Collins (10.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 66% FG in only 17.5 mpg).

Defensively, Gonzaga is 2nd in the nation in opponent's FG% at 37%, 7th in opponent's 3pt% at 29%, and 8th in opponent's ppg at 61.7. Some of those numbers are deflated due to competition, but against Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona, the Bulldogs surrendered only 68.3 ppg en route to three victories.

Gonzaga has not only won all 25 of their games, but they have done so in style, with an average margin of victory of a whopping 24 points. Again, that number is inflated due to their conference competition, but Gonzaga has proven that they can beat better competition, too. All three of their "good wins" came at neutral sites against two teams currently in the Top-20 (#9 Arizona 21-3 and #17 Florida 18-5), and 14-9 Iowa State.

These factors combined with the lack of clearly dominant teams this year in college basketball, could lead to the deep run that Mark Few and the Bulldogs have been seeking, as they search for their first Final Four appearance in program history.