Thursday, February 9, 2017

Could This Be The Year for Gonzaga?

Image result for nigel williams goss gonzaga

This season of college hoops has been as wild as any in recent history, but one constant remains, it's mid-February and no one knows whether or not to take Gonzaga seriously. 

Gonzaga currently sits at #1 in the AP and USA Today Top-25 polls at 25-0, which for any other school would be a resume that would surely bring the title of "the best team in college basketball". But that's not the case for the Bulldogs, likely due to the fact that they are not a member of a major conference, playing in the West Coast Conference.

The doubt is reasonable, despite making the NCAA tournament in each of the past 17 seasons (all 16 under Mark Few), reached the second weekend of the tournament in less than half of those appearances (five Sweet Sixteens, two Elite Eights). For most "mid-major" schools that would be quite the accomplishment, but the Bulldogs have been a 4-seed or higher six times under Few, reaching the second weekend in only three of those seasons. This has created somewhat of an underachieving or overrated view of Gonzaga despite their annual appearance in the March Madness.

So what could make this year different? Three major things: Depth, defense, and dominance.

The Bulldogs have seven players averaging 8 points per game or more, led by Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss (15.6 ppg, 4.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 50% FG). Joining Williams-Goss in the back court is sharpshooting sophomore Josh Perkins (9.3 ppg, 3.8 apg, 44% 3pt). Gonzaga also has a seemingly perfect combination of experience and youth in the post, in senior and Polish Giant Przemek Karnowski (12.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 61% FG in only 22 minutes), and freshman NBA prospect Zach Collins (10.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 66% FG in only 17.5 mpg).

Defensively, Gonzaga is 2nd in the nation in opponent's FG% at 37%, 7th in opponent's 3pt% at 29%, and 8th in opponent's ppg at 61.7. Some of those numbers are deflated due to competition, but against Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona, the Bulldogs surrendered only 68.3 ppg en route to three victories.

Gonzaga has not only won all 25 of their games, but they have done so in style, with an average margin of victory of a whopping 24 points. Again, that number is inflated due to their conference competition, but Gonzaga has proven that they can beat better competition, too. All three of their "good wins" came at neutral sites against two teams currently in the Top-20 (#9 Arizona 21-3 and #17 Florida 18-5), and 14-9 Iowa State.

These factors combined with the lack of clearly dominant teams this year in college basketball, could lead to the deep run that Mark Few and the Bulldogs have been seeking, as they search for their first Final Four appearance in program history.

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