Wednesday, March 1, 2017

The Mystery of the 2013 NBA Draft

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The 2013 draft is now well known as one of the worst drafts in recent history, but what was really so bad about it? Nearing four years removed the 2013 draft, it's starting to seem like the problem was the teams drafting, not the players available.

For starters, Giannis Antetokounmpo has turned into the type of player any team in the league would love to have drafted. In a five year span of drafts that included #1 draft picks Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns, it's certainly debatable that the Greek Freak has developed into arguably an equal to even the best of those former #1 picks. Obviously, it's crazy to say that a team could have known that Giannis would develop into the All-Star caliber player that he is now, but given the other players in the draft, his potential alone certainly could have put him much higher that the 15th pick where he landed.

Following the Greek Freak is the Robin to Damian Lillard's Batman, the pride of Lehigh, C.J. McCollum. Like Giannis, it took a couple of years for McCollum to really get going (in his case due to injury), but McCollum is now the third highest scoring shooting guard in the league. Not only has McCollum's scoring increased every year (now up to 23.3 points per game), but so has his efficiency (48% FG, and 55% effective FG). It's understandable that injury worries could cause teams to be hesitant on draft night, but given McCollum's ability to shoot and create, putting him on par with the four guards taken ahead of him would not have been unheard of.

Think Giannis is long and athletic? What if there was a player in the same draft class who was just five inches from the rim, without jumping? Enter Rudy Gobert, or, the Stifle Tower. At the combine, Gobert's standing reach was measured at 9 feet 7 inches, and a wingspan of 7 feet 8 inches. Granted, it's impossible to assume a prospect will become the best defensive center in the league based on physical attributes only, but Gobert's height (7'2") and reach combined with his 29 inch max vertical jump should've been enough for teams to take a flyer on him higher than the 27th pick. Gobert currently ranks 1st in the NBA in blocks (2.5 bpg) and defensive rating (97.8), and is 3rd in FG% (64%) and offensive rating (126.8).

The foreign theme continued in this draft with Dennis Schroder. The German was taken 17th by the Atlanta Hawks, as a backup to Jeff Teague. Now with Teague's departure, Schroder is averaging 17.4 ppg to go along with 6.3 apg, ranking 14th and 8th among point guards. Simply put, this means that at least 16 NBA teams are kicking themselves (in draft order and his current production).

This draft also brought the NBA's leader in 3-point percentage this year, with the #3 pick, Otto Porter Jr.. Like the other players listed here, it took Porter Jr. a couple of years to find his footing, but he is now averaging just over 14 ppg, on 46% from beyond the arc, fitting in perfectly with fellow top-3 picks John Wall and Bradley Beal in the nation's capital.

So given these five players, who would actually make a pretty solid starting five, and a unique one at that, it's time to reconsider bashing the 2013 draft class. In fact, it was one of the best drafts for international players, with Giannis and Schroder ranking 2nd and 7th in scoring, and 6th and 2nd in assists respectively, while Gobert, Giannis, Steven Adams, and Gorgui Dieng all rank in the top-10 in international rebounders.

If anything, the 2013 draft should serve as a warning for NBA teams in the draft process, where seven of the top-10 picks came from high-profile programs that receive lots of media attention over the course of the year. Whereas the only major college program player on this list of what might be the redrafted top-5 was Porter Jr.. Or, if you're one for conspiracies, maybe Cleveland was a step ahead of everybody in the "Riggin' for Wiggins" (as Bill Simmons called it) tanking campaign, and that's why they inexplicably took Anthony Bennett #1 overall.

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