Is Duke REALLY Missing Coach K?

Don't get me wrong, Kryzewski is probably the greatest college basketball coach of all time, and his absence certainly hurts the team, but is that really the issue for Duke right now? Maybe they just aren't an elite team this year.

The Blue Devils have no shortage of offensive talent, Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, and Jayson Tatum are phenomenal. However, there are two major factors that seem to be being over looked about this year's Duke team: Depth and parity.

Since the start of conference play, the Blue Devils have struggled to compete with the other top teams in the ACC (parity). However, much of this is due to a lack of production from anyone not named Luke Kennard or Jayson Tatum (and sometimes Matt Jones).

One of the key issues for Duke has been Grayson Allen, and I'm not talking about his tripping addiction. The pre-season Player of the Year favorite has also hit a bit of a rough patch performance wise, during ACC play Allen's scoring has dropped to 13.2 ppg, and is shooting only 25% from beyond the arc.

Some of Allen's struggles have been masked by the production of Kennard and Tatum (combined 35.9 ppg, 51% FG), but with very little offensive production from big men, the Blue Devils need all three stars to produce consistently.

Speaking of the big men, Amile Jefferson (8.8 ppg in ACC play) is a great role player, but he just doesn't have the elite size or athleticism that Duke needs to reach the next level. On the other hand, freshman Harry Giles does have the size and athleticism Duke needs, but the very limited time Giles has spent on the court over the past two years has shown early on since his return from injury.

The other little talked about factor in Duke's "struggles" this year is the parity not only in college basketball nationwide, but specifically in the ACC. Including the Blue Devils, six ACC teams are currently in the top 20, and two more have been as high as 20 at earlier points in the season.

More directly, three of Duke's five losses have come to teams currently in the top 15, and the other two on the road at 15-4 Virginia Tech and at the hands of an incredible individual performance by future lottery pick Dennis Smith (32 points and 6 assists) and NC State.

So what does this all mean for the Blue Devils as they head into February in an unfamiliar place in the middle of the pack in the ACC?

First, these losses are not the end of the world. With the exception of the most recent loss to NC State at home, all of Duke's losses have been against quality teams on the road.

Second, a run deep into March is far from out of the question. With Coach K set to return in a couple weeks, the steady improvement of Harry Giles, the likely return of Grayson Allen to his usual level of performance, and the ever-growing chemistry of this team with its now healthy pieces (except for their coach), this team has the talent to simply outscore anyone, and probably the best collegiate coach of all time.

Third, maybe the expectations were set to high. Of course every team wants to win a national title every year, and Duke often has a better shot than most teams, but last year's team lost in the Sweet Sixteen, and lost arguably their best player in number 2 overall pick Brandon Ingram. It's easy to get swept up in the hype of highly touted freshman, but the last several years have shown the importance of experience and chemistry, and those things take time.

Lastly, don't put all the blame on Coach K's surgery. However unlikely it may be that Duke would have dropped Monday night's game at home against NC State had Kryzewski been on the sideline, the Blue Devils had already dropped two contests with Coach K with the team. Since his surgery the losses have come more often, but that is partially due to an increase in level of competition. This team is just now getting healthy, and has only shown spurts of how good they can really be (take a look at their second half against Miami from this past weekend).