Monday, June 19, 2017

NBA Comparisons For This Year's Top Prospects

Image result for lonzo ballImage result for russell westbrook

Let me preface this post by saying that these comparisons are in terms of the players physical traits, and play style, and NOT that these prospects will become the annual all-star caliber players that they are being compared to. That mistake mentioned above is one of my biggest gripes with the NBA draft these days, players like Lebron, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, or Dirk Nowitzki are once in a lifetime players, and it's incredibly unfair to expect a player like Andrew Wiggins to be "the next Lebron James".

That being said, comparisons like these can be a good way of predicting the type of player these prospects will become, and can serve as a type of abstract or summary for the more casual basketball fans out there.

Markelle Fultz - Kyle Lowry

Yes, I know Fultz is listed at 6'4" and Lowry is one of the smaller guards at 6'0", but this is why this comparison is actually one that Fultz could outgrow. Fultz is deadly in the pick and roll, and has good size and athleticism for his position. If he can continue to shoot the ball well from beyond the arc at the next level, Fultz could basically be Kyle Lowry 2.0, bigger, faster, stronger, and, better.


Josh Jackson - Paul George

Let's be clear here, the more likely result for Jackson is his fellow one-and-done Jayhawk Andrew Wiggins, but in his one year at Kansas, Jackson already showed more willingness to impose his will on games. Jackson's big "flaw" is his inability to consistently make free throws, which many people take as an indication that he struggles shooting the ball. However, that assumption is false, while Jackson doesn't let it fly from deep as often as someone like Malik Monk, he hit 44% of his shots from deep during Big12 play last season. Realistically, Jackson should end up somewhere between Wiggins and George, but only time will tell.


Lonzo Ball - Russell Westbrook

Now before you immediately click off of this post because I just compared Lonzo to the reigning MVP/Triple-Double machine, let me explain. Do I think Lonzo will be a 30+ ppg scorer? No, I'm not his dad. BUT, Lonzo's size and skill-set are unique for his position, and his ability to speed up the game while still seeing the floor in slow motion is uncanny. To sum it up, Lonzo is Russell Westbrook with a three-point shot, and the will to do what's best for the team, not the MVP race. (@ me Westbrook fans, I'd love to have this debate).


De'Aaron Fox - John Wall

This is likely the least surprising comparison on this list. Both Fox and Wall are one-and-done Kentucky/Calipari products with elite speed and play-making ability, they even both came out of college with an unproven jump shot. Fox isn't quite the physical specimen Wall was coming out of college, but his numbers are almost identical. Fox's floor is probably more of a Jeff Teague or Dennis Scrhoeder, maybe Reggie Jackson at worst, but is that so bad?


Jayson Tatum - Tobias Harris

This is probably the most modest comparison here, but that's because Tatum was often playing third-fiddle to Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard, and when he did get more shots, was less efficient. That being said, Tatum was fantastic when he was able to get to the line, and shot 85% from the stripe. Tatum has the potential to be a top-10 small-forward in the league if he becomes more consistently aggressive and efficient when doing so.


In conclusion, it's really hard to tell which of these five guys will be the best in five years, or if it will be someone from this draft not even in the lottery. Fultz and Jackson appear to be the most reliable picks, but it's very possible that Ball, Fox, or Tatum out-perform them throughout their careers.

This makes this draft an exciting one to follow down the road, not because it will be one where we look back and say "wow, that guy drafted in the 20s should've been a top-5 pick", but because the top end is so loaded, that it'll be fun to watch how they all pan out.

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